NEWS AND INSIGHTS | INSIGHTS

CIO Notebook: Sluggish Job Growth Points to Steady Rates, For Now

一月 09, 2026
Shannon Saccocia, CFA, 首席投资官 — NB私募财富

While today’s print points to a Fed on hold in their upcoming meeting, a surprise to the downside for inflation could perhaps increase the probability of a January cut even as other economic indicators point to a U.S. economy that is reaccelerating.

December non-farm payrolls were released on schedule today following several months of disruption due to the U.S. government shutdown. Expected to increase by +70k, December payrolls were instead up by only +50k, due primarily to declines in retail, construction, and manufacturing employment. Both October and November payrolls were revised lower, with November down -8k to +56k and October lower by -68k – implying the three-month average payroll declined by -22k. In aggregate, payrolls grew by only +584k in 2025 and still only +733k when looking just at private payrolls. For context, private payrolls grew by +1.559m in 2025.

Drilling into the details, health care hiring was strong once again, up +21k, with social assistance adding another +17k jobs. Leisure and hospitality were up by +47k, led by a sharp increase of +27k in food and beverage service. As mentioned above, declines in retail trade (-25k), construction (-11k), and manufacturing (-8k) weighed on the print. While construction jobs are typically more volatile, and heavily impacted by weather, the U.S. manufacturing sector has yet to show meaningful signs of life during President Donald Trump’s second term – a disappointment given the continued emphasis on re-shoring and revitalization of the U.S. production economy.

More encouraging was the decline in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.6%; expectations were for 4.5%. The participation rate ticked back down to 62.4%, as the number of employed persons increased by +232k while unemployed persons fell by -278k. Average hourly earnings came in at +0.3% month-over-month (MoM) and +3.8% year-over-year (YoY), reversing trend by last month’s admittedly surprising growth of only +0.1% and +3.5% YoY. Hours worked, however, were lower, at 34.2 versus 34.3 – something to monitor closely as we remain in a low firing, low hiring environment, as continued pressure lower in hours worked could signal future job losses.

Today’s print points to a Fed on hold in their upcoming meeting later this month. While a surprise to the downside for inflation (due out next week) could perhaps increase the probability of a January cut, other economic indicators point to a U.S. economy that is reaccelerating. Equities are slightly higher in today’s session while Treasury yields are flat. In addition, there have been several meaningful announcements this week that are impacting market activity as well.

Following this weekend’s military action in Venezuela, with the intention to alleviate affordability challenges in the U.S. housing market, President Trump announced this week that he will attempt to ban “institutional investors” from purchasing U.S. single family homes. He also called for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgages in an attempt to move mortgage rates lower. In addition, Trump announced his intent to increase the U.S. defense budget by 50% to $1.5 trillion and, in turn, called for U.S. defense companies to commit to higher capital expenditure and production or potentially face restrictions on dividends and stock buybacks. Finally, there was some speculation that the U.S. Supreme Court might release its ruling on the legality of the IEEPA tariffs today, but investors will need to wait a bit longer on that.

With so much happening to begin the year, both from a policy and geopolitical perspective, it can be difficult to remain focused and disciplined. Our view remains that the global economy is reaccelerating, that the long end of the Treasury curve is likely to remain reasonably anchored, that opportunities for strong earnings growth and potential multiple expansion for equities exist despite strong 2025 equity returns, and that the tailwinds of improving business confidence and lower rates will support a more robust M&A and exit cycle for private companies. We encourage you to reach out to Neuberger to discuss the opportunities we see, and how you can best position your portfolios to take advantage of them in 2026.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION:

This material is provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. This material is general in nature and is not directed to any category of investors and should not be regarded as individualized, a recommendation, investment advice or a suggestion to engage in or refrain from any investment-related course of action. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Neuberger Berman products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types. Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss in declining markets. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Investments in private equity are speculative and involve a higher degree of risk than more traditional investments. Investments in private equity are intended for sophisticated investors only. Unless otherwise indicated, returns shown reflect reinvestment of dividends and distributions. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Portfolio positioning views expressed herein are those of Neuberger Berman’s Private Wealth Investment Group, which may include those of the Neuberger Berman’s Asset Allocation Committee. Asset allocation and positioning views are based on a hypothetical reference portfolio. The Private Wealth Investment Group analyzes market and economic indicators to develop asset allocation strategies. The Private Wealth Investment Group works in partnership with the Office of the CIO. The Private Wealth Investment Group also consults regularly with portfolio managers and investment officers across the firm. The Asset Allocation Committee is comprised of professionals across multiple disciplines, including equity and fixed income strategists and portfolio managers. The Asset Allocation Committee reviews and sets long-term asset allocation models, establishes preferred near-term tactical asset class allocations and, upon request, reviews asset allocations for large, diversified mandates. Asset Allocation Committee members are polled on asset classes and the positional views are representative of an Asset Allocation Committee consensus. The views of the Asset Allocation Committee and the Private Wealth Investment Group may not reflect the views of the firm as a whole and Neuberger Berman advisers and portfolio managers may take contrary positions to the views of the Asset Allocation Committee or the Private Wealth Investment Group. The Asset Allocation Committee and the Private Wealth Investment Group views do not constitute a prediction or projection of future events or future market behavior. Defensive positioning generally means an underweight bias on allocations to risk assets such as equities and alternatives. Positioning views may change over time without notice and actual client positioning may vary significantly. Discussion of yield characteristics or total returns of different asset classes are for illustrative purposes only. Such asset classes, such as equities and fixed income, may have significantly different overall risk-return characteristics which should be consider before investing.

The information in this material may contain projections, market outlooks or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, including economic, asset class and market outlooks or expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events, outlook and expectations will be achieved, and actual results may be significantly different than that shown here. The duration and characteristics of past market/economic cycles and market behavior, including any bull/bear markets, is no indication of the duration and characteristics of any current or future be market/economic cycles or behavior. Information on historical observations about asset or sub-asset classes is not intended to represent or predict future events. Historical trends do not imply, forecast or guarantee future results. Information is based on current views and market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons.

Discussions of any specific sectors and companies are for informational purposes only. This material is not intended as a formal research report and should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision. The firm, its employees and advisory accounts may hold positions of any companies discussed. Nothing herein constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. Investment decisions and the appropriateness of this content should be made based on an investor's individual objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors.

Neuberger Berman Investment Advisers LLC is a registered investment adviser.

The “Neuberger Berman” name and logo are registered service marks of Neuberger Berman Group LLC.